Don't Fear China's Political Rise

China is marching around the world at breakneck speed buying everything they can. That is not an exaggeration. They obviously believe in themselves and their own growth. I think the best way to put it is this, they are putting their money where their mouths are. If they didn’t believe in their own growth, they wouldn’t be making these monumental investments in raw materials and land.

Many people fear a China stretching its arms out all over the world, not because they are gobbling up natural resource assets, but because they are afraid of what China may do politically abroad. First off, and I have written about this extensively on this blog, any nation which attains a higher level of economic activity naturally grasps for more clout politically on the international stage. With that as well comes a larger military, most often in the form of the navy, or the ability to project power around the world.

China has just begun to build its navy, and they are doing it quickly. I wrote a post on this a few months back. But the bigger question on everyone’s mind is, what will China do politically in the countries where it now holds major investments and economic sway? Will they be benign? Will they build an empire as the British did? Will they prop up dictators as the US did? Will they attempt to spread some kind of fundamental values system?

This is a tremendously difficult question to answer, and a very very very important one. The United States is broke and will slowly withdraw from being the underwriter of global security over the next 20 years. There is great fear that there will be no one there to step up and fill that vacuum. Globalization and Chinese growth do not work without global security.

Here’s my view. China has thus far been extremely, and I mean to an uncanny degree, hands off in the politics of foreign nations which it has large investments in. I believe they will continue to act in that fashion in the near term. My fear is this. What happens when global security breaks down, will they step up to the plate and get involved? I believe they will. It’s not a matter of if, but when. And what type of military power will they be? Will they install hard line dictators who are able to calm everything down with an iron fist? Or will they attempt to do nation building? The cynic inside me believes that all modern superpowers will perish in Afghanistan, China may be next in about 70-80 years. I don’t think China is interested in nation building, I don’t believe they care to export their values, I think they have enough to worry about being as large as they are. They will be extremely pragmatic, installing hard line rulers who will, for the lack of a better phrase, calm shit down at all costs.

So should you fear China’s march around the world for assets in a political sense, no. I don’t think they are interested in anything else but their own growth and anything which would distract them from that takes a back seat. Look for them to be pragmatic, ruthless, and scared of their own people.

About the author: Leigh Drogen

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